The basketball card market has been building over the last several seasons, and Panini Prizm has become the “go-to” set of choice for collectors around the world.

The Draft Class

The hype for the 2019-20 Panini Prizm NBA release started to build even before the 2018-19 season was over.  Collectors looked to the upcoming draft class and got excited, real excited.

Zion Williamson headlines the class and despite not playing his first game till January, drove sales to levels we have not typically seen.  Even base cards were selling for $50-$75.  With Zion prices so high, collectors began to look at the other talented rookies for an alternative. Base cards of Ja Morant, Sekou Doumbouya, Coby White, and Rui Hachimura among others are all seeing “elevated” prices in this market. 

Halfway through the season, the on-court performance of this rookie class continues to exceed expectations.  While many analysts feel there are only a couple players who have the potential to be superstars, the class is deep with players who could be the #2 or #3 option on their team.  I’m curious to see how that translates to the long term sustainability of the card prices we’re seeing mid-season.

The Set Breakdown

The 2019-20 Prizm base set contains 300 cards which have a similar design fans have come to enjoy.  Only slight border design variations were made which resulted in a different, but familiar look.  There is no chance that collectors will confuse these cards for another release.  Cards 1-247 are a mixture of current and retired players, and 248-300 are where the rookies are found.

While several insert sets exist, it’s the rainbow of parallels that drive the popularity of the set.  Despite being un-numbered and far from rare, the “Silver Prizm” has become the must-have NBA rookie card.  In addition, there are about 39 other parallels by my count bringing the total to about 40!  Personally, I find that overwhelming and only reinforces my focus on base set collecting.  I don’t even want to think about trying to complete that rainbow.

A hobby box averages two autographs and comes with a suggested retail price of $150.  However, that suggestion was laughed off be distributors, hobby shops, and collectors long before the product hit the shelves.  By the end of January 2020, sealed boxes were selling for over $600.

The retail configurations also provided the opportunity to receive a relic card.  Wave after wave of retail stock was scooped up by collectors, and many in the hobby community are curious to see how long the inventory will continue to roll out.  While no firm production figures have been released, monitoring population reports from the grading companies helps provide a reference point for production levels.

Box Break

I didn’t chase any hobby boxes, but I did preorder some “mega-boxes” from Wal-Mart.  I opened some and sold some, and you can see my break below!

Not getting any Zions was a bummer, but overall it was a fun break.  However, with the prices we’re seeing,  I am glad I locked in my profit.  A couple months later I was able to pick up a huge lot of a few thousand base and insert cards.  I had to pick up a few of the big names like Zion and Morant on their own, but I’m happy to have a complete base set for the PC.  The profit I’ll make on the rest of the lot will more than cover my cost!

Wrapping It Up

I’m glad the industry continues to strengthen.  The popularity of the NBA continues to grow domestically and abroad, and that is translating to strong demand for cards.  Prizm appears to be the “flagship” NBA release at this point and if we were dealing with anything close to “normal” prices, I’d suggest ripping to your heart’s content.  However, we’re not dealing with normal prices.

I still like the set, and I suggest going after bulk lots if you want to build it.  It’s a much more affordable way to collect this one.  In fact, it may be possible to offset your entire cost if you do it right!  Time will tell if the Prizm and Zion mania we saw during the 2019-20 season was only the beginning or was a flashback to the astronomical prices we saw for McGwire, Canseco, and Griffey Jr. cards in the 90s.

Either way, I had fun building the set, and I locked in some profit.  While I won’t get rich from a massive pull, I also have no downside risk.

I’ll be talking about more topics like this on upcoming episodes of my Podcast, The WaxPackHero Sports Card Minute!  It’s available here via the podcast link at the top of the page, so you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Google Play!